What’s shaping the future of metal roof and wall panels? In this forward-looking episode, McElroy Metal teams up with Paul Trombitas from FMi Consulting to explore key market trends for 2026 and beyond.
From construction demand and material costs to evolving design priorities and sustainability expectations, we break down what contractors, distributors, and architects can expect — and how to stay competitive in a changing marketplace.
Notable Quotes
-
Paul Trombitas: "I love talking about the metal roof and wall space because it's just such an area that has received a lot of interest, and we've seen a lot of growth. And even so, when you look at the total roof market compared to metal roof, metal roof is outperforming it pretty substantially."
-
Paul Trombitas: "We joke around at FMi about the Chip and Joanna Gaines factor in that these outside of the industry influences are having significant impact in a different way to showcase the benefits, educate the market, which are starting to have a real material impact."
-
Paul Trombitas: "There's enormous dynamics converging to help drive the growth—from sustainability and resiliency, the incentives, and then the insurance. All these dynamics converge to help drive the growth as well."
What You'll Learn
- How FMi Consulting develops construction forecasts using economic modeling, project tracking, and industry validation
- Which construction segments are driving growth through 2029 and why data centers are reshaping office market statistics
- Current metal roofing market size and projected growth to over five billion square feet by 2029
- Why residential metal roofing represents eighty-five percent of the market and where the highest growth opportunities exist
- How distribution channel expansion is enabling broader contractor access to metal roofing products
- The role of insulated metal panels in data center and cold storage construction
- Why residential metal wall applications are emerging as a significant growth opportunity
- How insurance requirements, state incentives, and sustainability trends are accelerating metal adoption
Key Timestamps
0:00 – Introduction to Paul Trombitas, partner at FMi Consulting, and overview of FMi's seventy years specializing in construction industry consulting and investment banking.
2:30 – Current construction market outlook with total spending at 2.1 trillion dollars in 2024, projected to reach 2.5 trillion by 2029 at 3.7 percent annual growth.
5:45 – Segment breakdown revealing data centers as the fastest growing market at seventeen percent annual growth, representing over fifty percent of office construction through 2029.
9:00 – Geographic trends showing ten percent of corporations relocated last year to secondary cities including Raleigh, Charlotte, Tampa, and Nashville.
11:30 – Metal roofing forecast indicating volume will exceed five billion square feet by 2029, with residential representing eighty-five percent of the market.
16:00 – Product mix analysis showing standing seam as the market leader, followed by shingles and through-fastened systems in residential applications.
19:30 – Metal wall panel outlook with insulated metal panels representing fifty percent of the market, driven by data center and manufacturing construction.
24:00 – Competitive landscape discussion addressing increased market interest from non-traditional firms and the growing role of on-site roll forming.
27:30 – External market drivers including sustainability requirements, insurance considerations, state incentives, and IRA funding supporting metal adoption.
31:00 – Final outlook summary positioning 2026 as a stabilization year with stronger growth anticipated in 2027 and beyond.
Mentioned Resources
Episode Deep Dive
What Is the Metal Roofing Industry Forecast Through 2029?
The metal roofing and siding industry stands at a promising crossroads, with forecasts pointing toward sustained growth despite near-term economic uncertainties. Paul Trombitas, partner at FMi Consulting, recently joined the Building with Metal Podcast to share comprehensive market insights drawn from his firm's seventy years of exclusive focus on the construction industry.
FMi Consulting brings a unique perspective to construction forecasting through what Trombitas describes as a triangulating method. The approach combines economic modeling developed over decades with tracking of projects in planning and construction phases, supplemented by direct conversations with CEOs across the industry spectrum. This boots-on-the-ground validation ensures forecasts reflect real market conditions rather than theoretical projections alone.
How Is the Overall Construction Market Performing?
The overall construction market presents an encouraging picture. Total spending reached 2.1 trillion dollars in 2024, with FMi projecting growth to approximately 2.5 trillion dollars by 2029 at an annual rate of 3.7 percent. While 2025 has presented challenges, Trombitas sees 2026 as a stabilization year with meaningful growth returning in the latter half and accelerating into 2027.
Understanding the nuances within market segments proves essential for businesses planning their strategies. Data centers represent perhaps the most striking example. The segment is growing at seventeen percent annually, projected to expand from roughly forty billion dollars to seventy-seven billion by 2029. However, data centers are classified within the office segment, which shows eight percent growth overall. Remove data centers from the calculation, and traditional office construction drops to less than one percent growth. As Trombitas noted, "Looks can be deceiving" when examining broad market categories.
Where Is Construction Activity Concentrating Geographically?
Geographic shifts are reshaping where construction activity concentrates. A recent report revealed that last year marked the highest percentage of corporate relocations in fifteen years, with ten percent of corporations moving to new states. The destinations trend toward secondary cities including Raleigh, Charlotte, Tampa, Orlando, and Nashville rather than traditional primary markets like Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York. This migration pattern will drive substantial infrastructure, education, and commercial construction in these growing markets over the next decade.
Why Is Metal Roofing Outperforming the Broader Market?
The metal roofing segment commands particular attention for its outperformance relative to the broader roofing market. FMi projects metal roofing volume to exceed five billion square feet by 2029, representing 465 million square feet of incremental growth from 2025 to 2029. Trombitas expressed genuine enthusiasm for this sector, stating "I love talking about the metal roof and wall space because it's just such an area that has received a lot of interest, and we've seen a lot of growth."
What Is Driving Residential Metal Roofing Growth?
Residential applications dominate the metal roofing landscape, representing approximately eighty-five percent of total volume at 3.8 billion square feet projected for 2029. The reroofing segment drives much of this activity, aligned with the broader roofing market trend and supported by the fact that sixty percent of US homes are now thirty years or older. However, new construction represents the highest growth area within residential metal roofing, driven by increased awareness of durability, longevity, and aesthetic options.
The product mix in residential metal roofing shows standing seam systems leading the market, followed by metal shingles and through-fastened panels. Geographically, the South, Pacific region, and West Coast show the highest concentration of metal roofing activity.
How Has Distribution Channel Evolution Expanded the Market?
Distribution channel evolution has played a crucial role in market expansion. Major distributors increasingly carry metal roofing products, enabling regional and local contractors to gain experience and familiarity with metal systems. This accessibility has contributed significantly to market growth by expanding the contractor base capable of offering metal roofing to homeowners.
Cultural influences have also impacted market perception in unexpected ways. Trombitas referenced what FMi internally calls "the Chip and Joanna Gaines factor," noting that influences from outside the industry are having significant impact by showcasing benefits and educating consumers in new ways. These media influences have helped shift perception of metal roofing from an inferior or industrial option to a premium, desirable choice.
What Are the Trends in Nonresidential Metal Roofing?
The nonresidential metal roofing segment shows equally favorable trends. At 780 million square feet projected for 2025, metal roofing captures thirty percent of the nonresidential roof market. Commercial and industrial applications represent sixty-five percent of this segment, with commercial showing the largest growth trajectory. The emphasis on longevity, durability, and lifecycle value drives selection in institutional applications including education and healthcare facilities.
How Are Metal Wall Panels Performing in the Market?
Metal wall panels present a smaller but rapidly evolving market at approximately 360 million square feet. Manufacturing construction drove substantial growth from 2021 through 2023, while data centers and cold storage facilities now represent primary demand drivers. Insulated metal panels account for fifty percent of the metal wall market, largely due to data center and manufacturing volume requirements. Standing seam wall systems represent approximately thirty percent, with metal composite materials and plate and corrugated options following.
Residential metal wall applications emerged as a notable discussion point. While not traditionally tracked in the Metal Construction Association study, industry participants consistently identify residential accent walls as a very favorable emerging market. Social media influences and the desire for home differentiation are driving homeowner interest in metal wall applications for new construction.
What Does the Competitive Landscape Look Like?
The competitive landscape reflects market optimism, with increased interest from firms outside traditional metal roofing. Acquisitions have occurred at the top end of the market while smaller on-site roll forming operations have expanded at the local level. Trombitas views this positively, noting that while competitors have increased, the overall market pie is growing sufficiently to create opportunity for all participants.
How Do Sustainability and Insurance Factors Support Metal Roofing Adoption?
External factors continue to support metal roofing adoption. Sustainability requirements and resiliency concerns favor metal systems for their durability and recyclability. The Inflation Reduction Act provides funding to address energy codes, while states including Alabama, Florida, and Louisiana offer grants and credits specifically for metal roofing. Insurance considerations increasingly drive volume as homeowners seek to hedge against risks from hail, wind, and fire through more resilient roofing systems.
Florida stands at the forefront of regulatory changes expected to benefit metal roofing significantly. Proposed changes and recommendations in the state would create favorable conditions for both metal roofing and wall applications, with potential ripple effects across other hurricane and severe weather prone regions.
What Are the Key Takeaways for Metal Roofing Industry Growth?
The forecast summary positions the metal roofing and siding industry favorably despite broader economic uncertainties. Commercial and institutional segments show particular strength, with data centers, cold storage, healthcare, and education facilities driving demand. The residential market continues expanding through both reroofing and new construction channels, supported by changing consumer perception and expanded distribution access.
For contractors and manufacturers evaluating market opportunities, the data suggests multiple entry points and growth strategies. Residential metal roofing offers the largest volume opportunity, while insulated metal panels present strong growth potential tied to data center and industrial construction. The emerging residential wall panel segment may offer early-mover advantages as the market develops.
As Trombitas concluded, the overall message remains encouraging. After stabilization in 2026, the industry can anticipate continued growth and expanded market presence through the remainder of the decade. For those already in the metal construction space or considering entry, the fundamentals support optimism and strategic investment in capabilities and market presence.
Comments on this article:
Scroll down to the bottom to submit a comment and join the conversation. Need help or have a question? Please contact us. Looking for a distributor or contractor? Please click here to get started.